PALO ALTO, Calif., February 18th, 2009:

The Academy Awards air this Sunday, February 22nd, and the year’s big winners in film are set to be announced. While the choices of the Academy will be under wraps until Sunday, YouGov/Polimetrix conducted a survey to get the pulse of the American public. 1,300 people were interviewed between February 9-15, and were asked to select their favorites from among the nominees in the major categories.

Americans showed a noticeable preference for one winner in only a couple of categories, while the majority of the nominees seemed evenly split as the population’s favorites. The year's undisputed fan-favorite film, "The Dark Knight" won all of its nominations by very significant margins. But other categories with lesser known films and actors tended to be much closer contests. It remains to be seen how close the public's opinion will match the Academy's ultimate decisions.

The clear winner for best actor among the public is Brad Pitt for his performance in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button". Close on his heels, Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn are nearly tied for second place. Frank Langella and Richard Jenkins, both venerable character actors known mostly for their supporting roles, take the fourth and fifth spots. If other awards are an indication of this year's Oscar winners, then the race is actually between Sean Penn (who won the Screen Actor’s Guild award) and Mickey Rourke (who won the Golden Globe). This is sure to be one of the tightest races come Oscar Night.

If Americans are divided on any one category this year, it is certainly Best Actress. Here, the fan favorites are split so evenly between Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep that the clear favorite is truly a toss-up. Kate Winslet’s performance has already won her both a Screen Actor’s Guild award and a Golden Globe, making her the clear front-runner for the award this year. However, Meryl Streep’s strong notoriety among the public as a great actress is creating a hung jury in the public’s case.

In the contest for Best Supporting Actress, the nominees are arguably the least well known among the American public of all the actors and actresses nominated this year. Marisa Tomei is a slight fan favorite for her role in "The Wrestler." Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") and Amy Adams ("Doubt") are both close seconds.

The success and hype of "The Dark Knight" at the box office makes it the undisputed fan favorite movie of the year. It comes as no surprise that Heath Ledger wins the Best Supporting Actor candidate hands-down among the public with his anarchic portrayal of The Joker. Three times more people picked Ledger than second-place choice Robert Downey Jr. ("Tropic Thunder").

In the competition for best visual effects, here again "The Dark Knight" blew out the rest of the pack. Its fan-favorite status helped it edge out more computer graphics-heavy films such as "Iron Man" and "Benjamin Button".

This year’s fan choice for best animated film is no surprise. Pixar’s "Wall-E" was an audacious, innovative, and brilliant achievement. If there is one surefire confluence between what the Academy will pick and what the public enjoyed the most, it is most definitely "Wall-E".

The best director category is a perfect example of the difference between public and professional opinion. Only a few American directors reach such status as to be household names like Steven Spielberg or Martin Scorsese. For the most part, directors tend to be lauded and followed by film-fanatics and passed over by the majority of filmgoers. These results demonstrate this fact clearly. Respondents chose the recognizable Ron Howard as their pick for best director even though British director Danny Boyle has already taken this year’s Director’s Guild award and Golden Globe, and is the favorite for the win on Sunday.

Best Picture of the Year is another close race. Public opinion is almost tied between “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”. These results would certainly not be as close had the Academy chosen to nominate “The Dark Knight,” which is this year’s best picture elephant. However, given the Academy’s nomination of art-house films and independent dramas, American opinion remains divided.

This year proved to be an unusually exciting award season with more critically acclaimed performances and films than in the past. Indeed, it will be very hard for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to choose its winners without leaving some fans feeling snubbed. The lead contenders in this year’s race are "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" with 13 nominations, "Slumdog Millionaire" with 10 nominations, and both "Milk" and "The Dark Knight" tied with 8 nominations each.

There is more at stake for the nominees than mere acclaim, however. Academy Awards tend to boost box office sales for both the nominees and the winners. Already the many nominations garnered on "Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire" have boosted those films’ revenue.

This can be especially important for certain films since many of the nominees are not widely known or seen by the American public before the Awards air. After all, the Academy is not a representative sample of the public and therefore will award some surprisingly unknown actors and films each year. For example, in last year’s awards ceremony, the "Best Actress in a Leading Role" prize was awarded to Marion Cotillard (a French actress who is little known in the United States) for her performance in the film "La Vie en Rose" (a film most Americans have never heard of).

About YouGov/Polimetrix

Founded in 2004, YouGov/Polimetrix, a division of YouGov, plc, is a professional research and consulting organization. Collecting over 2 million interviews each year, YouGov/Polimetrix sports an industry-leading array of experts in statistics and research to collect higher-quality, in-depth data for market research and public consultation.

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