America not seen as winning war in Afghanistan, but half of Americans say, war was not a mistake
Palo Alto, Calif., August 21, 2009:
Most Americans don’t expect a happy ending when it comes to the fighting in Afghanistan, and in the short-term they doubt American success and are extremely skeptical that the country is secure enough to hold its August 20th elections successfully.
According to an August 16-18, 2009 YouGov PollingPoint poll conducted for The Economist/, nearly two-thirds (65%) expect the U.S. will end up withdrawing from Afghanistan without a victory. Just 35% expect the U.S. to win.
The “surge” of additional U.S. troops into Afghanistan has had little or no effect on U.S. skepticism. 71%, about as many as in March, expect the U.S. to still have troops in Afghanistan in 2012. Back then, as the first of the additional troops President Obama approved for a “surge” into Afghanistan were deployed, Americans were also concerned about the war’s prognosis. Then, only 18% told the Economist/YouGov Poll that they thought the U.S. was winning the war in Afghanistan. Today, even with the additional “boots on the ground,” the same percentage – just 18% – believe the U.S. is winning. Twice as many, 34%, think the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq.
In March, Americans narrowly supported increasing troop numbers in the Economist/You Gov Poll 45% to 37%. Now, while some military leaders have suggested increasing troop strength even more, Americans say no. Only 32% support sending additional troops, while 41% oppose that.
Some of the current concern may be due to the recent increase in violence and Taliban threats leading up to the August 20th presidential election in Afghanistan. Just 11% of Americans think most of Afghanistan is secure enough to hold that election; 56% think most of Afghanistan is NOT secure enough for the election.
Only 14% of Americans think that most Afghan people want U.S. troops to stay there. More than twice as many (32%) say the majority of Afghans want U.S. troops to leave. The rest are unsure or say the Afghan population is divided evenly in their feeling about the U.S. troop presence.
Despite the skepticism, Americans have not rejected the war in Afghanistan completely. Only 31% say the U.S. made a mistake to get involved in Afghanistan. Nearly half (49%) say it did NOT. Perhaps that’s because 71% think the Taliban would return to power if U.S. troops left. That sets the war in Afghanistan apart from the war in Vietnam. As early as 1966, more Americans told the Gallup Poll that involvement in Vietnam had been a mistake.
Presidential Approval Tracker
Overall approval of Barack Obama’s job performance remains below 50% -- in this Economist/YouGov Poll, his approval rating remains at last week’s all-time low. 49% approve, while 44% disapprove.
On every specific issue, from the war in Iraq to health care, the President’s approval rating is under 50%, the first time that has ever happened in the Economist/YouGov Poll.
Americans today make little distinction in their assessment of the President’s performance between the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan. 46% approve his handling of Iraq, 47% his handling of the war in Afghanistan, and 43% approve his handling of terrorism.
This is the first time approval of Barack Obama’s handling of the war in Iraq has fallen below 50%.
And there are other apparently new weaknesses. For the first time, less than half the public (49%) describes Barack Obama as someone who mostly “says what he believes.” Now, 51%, more than ever before say he is someone who mostly says “what he thinks people want to hear.”
But despite these new polling woes, Americans still like the President “as a person.” 67% say they do, and just 21% say they dislike him.
Health Care Debate
Last week’s health care town halls did little to change public opinion about the President’s plans for health care reform. Americans are still divided – and somewhat confused – on the proposal, and express concern about what will happen to them should it pass.
The President doesn’t appear to be making much progress with the public despite his three town halls last week. But then again, neither have his opponents. Just 43% in this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll approve of how the President is handling health care, and 48% disapprove, not much different from what they said last week (then, 44% approved and 47% disapproved). Only 15% think their own health care would improve if Congress passes a reform bill, the same percentage who thought so last week. Twice as many say they personally would be worse off than say they would be better off if the bill passes, just as they did last week. 52% this week say their taxes or health care costs would increase if the bill passes, 54% thought that a week ago.
The President is losing one battle for opinion: the opponents of health care reform are seen as more numerous than the supporters. 40% say they believe a majority of Americans oppose health care reform, only 25% believe most Americans support reform.
The President has convinced most Americans that health care reform would insure that people could get insurance coverage for pre-existing conditions, as well as that people could keep their coverage even if they became ill. 66% believe the first, 65% the second. But he has not made the case that reform would result in long-term savings. 46% say it will, 54% say it won’t.
Another problem: there is majority belief that some of the criticisms made by health care reform opponents would occur if a health care reform bill passes. 60% believe there would be rationing, 57% believe there would be limits on treatments for the elderly and disabled, 54% think that the plan would require he elderly to have consultations with doctors about end of life decisions (the “death panels” cited by Sarah Palin and others).
This confusion exists despite the fact that two in three Americans claim to have heard or read at least “a fair amount” about the plan.
It appears that many Americans would just rather have the government wait a while before acting. 46% think Congress is moving too quickly on health care reform; only 29% say it is moving too slowly. Half of Independents, and half of those currently with health insurance believe Congress is moving too fast.
There is much doubt about whether the government can manage health care. A majority of Americans (54%) think the government would do a poor job in managing any expert panel that would decide which treatments are effective and which too costly. And by nearly two to one, Americans think big government is a bigger threat than big business.
Interested in more details about the poll? We have a topline summary and complete tabs available now.
Methodology:
These results are from a weekly YouGov PollingPoint public opinion tracking poll conducted for publication in The Economist. The poll surveyed 1,000 respondents and was fielded from August 16-18, 2009. Results from interviews conducted online by members of the PollingPoint panel are representative of the U.S. adult population. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.8%.
