The tale of two wars
Palo Alto, Calif., August 28, 2009:
The fighting in Afghanistan is nearing the end of its eighth year, while the war in Iraq has continued for more than six. But Americans interviewed in this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll see no end in sight for either war, and think they both will end with the United States withdrawing without victory.
Little sets the two wars apart in Americans’ minds, but there is one very big difference. Only 31% think the United States made a mistake getting involved in Afghanistan. About half say it was not. But a majority, 55%, say sending troops to Iraq was a mistake.
But the similarities in the way Americans view the two fronts outweigh that difference. Majorities don’t think the U.S. is winning either contest today or will ever win it. Perceptions of current American success in Iraq, though poor, are better than perceptions of how things are going in Afghanistan. 33% think the U.S. is winning in Iraq, while only 15% say that about the current situation in Afghanistan, where the number of American troop deaths in 2009 makes this the deadliest year yet for the U.S. military. This week’s 15% is even lower than the 18% who thought the U.S. was winning the war in Afghanistan last week, before the presidential election there.
Will the U.S. win? Americans doubt it. 64% say the U.S. will eventually withdraw from Iraq without a victory (36% think the U.S. will be victorious in Iraq); there is only a little less pessimism about Afghanistan. 41% expect victory there; 59% say the U.S. will withdraw without victory in Afghanistan.
That withdrawal isn’t expected anytime soon. 63% say the United States will still have troops in Iraq in 2012; even more, 75%, four points more than just last week, think there will be American soldiers in Afghanistan then.
By better than two to one, Americans think local people in both countries would rather have U.S troops leave than stay. And many Americans personally would rather see the number of U.S. troops in both countries decrease -- especially the number of troops in Iraq. 62% want to decrease troop levels in Iraq. 38% say then U.S. should decrease the number of troops in Afghanistan, but 37% say they want more troops sent to that country.
There are partisan divisions about both wars, but they are especially stark when it comes to the assessment of Iraq. 60% of Republicans say the U.S. is winning in Iraq, something just 21% of Democrats think. 62% of Republicans expect eventual victory there, more than twice the 24% of Democrats who say this. Republicans reject the claim that the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to Iraq. Just 16% of Republicans say that, compared with 78% of Democrats.
Partisan differences on Afghanistan are more a matter of degree than difference, with Republicans only somewhat more positive than Democrats Just 29% of Republicans think the U.S. is winning that war, for example, though that is still higher than the 8% of Democrats who think that. 58% of Republicans expect eventual victory there, but so do 41% of Democrats. And 30% of Democrats, compared with 17% of Republicans, say that war was a mistake.
The President’s overall approval rating’s new low is also reflected in the new lows Americans give him on his management of both these wars: 44% approve his handling of the war in Iraq – down again from 46% last week. 43% disapprove. When it comes to the war in Afghanistan, 42% approve, down five points from 47% last week. 42% disapprove.
Like all assessments of the President, these job ratings are highly partisan. Democrats approve, Republicans disapprove.
The war on terrorism and the Lockerbie bomber:
Most Americans (79%) say they are angry about the release of the Lockerbie bomber from a Scottish prison. Abdel Basset Ali Al-Megrahi was convicted in the 1988 airplane bombing that killed nearly 200 Americans. In fact, 43% say they are “very angry.” But there is also a certain resignation – only 31% think the Obama Administration could have prevented the release.
Republicans are more likely to think the Administration could have done something – nearly half of them (49%) think the President could have prevented the release.
And, just as his approval ratings on handling Iraq and Afghanistan have fallen in the last week as violence in both countries increased, the President’s ratings on handling terrorism have also fallen. In the last week, not only was the Lockerbie bomber released last week, but the Administration has revived the discussion of how the CIA interrogated terrorist suspects, with the Department of Justice appointing a special prosecutor to investigate some of those interrogations. In this week’s poll, only 39% approve of the President’s handling of terrorism – down again from 43% last week, and a new low.
Pessimism about the stimulus plan:
Opinions about the economy have steadily improved over the year: 24% now say the economy is getting better, up from a low of 4% in February. Back then, 69% said the economy was getting worse. That figure is now just 36%, although it has been trending downwards in the last few weeks.
The economy is still the country’s most important issue – and it happens to be the specific issue on which President Obama gets his best ratings; 45% approve. But Americans aren’t convinced that it’s the President’s stimulus package that is making the difference. Only 24% say the stimulus package is working, and only another 9% think that plan WILL eventually work.
The President’s numbers are being buoyed by partisan support, with Democrats more likely to say things are getting better, and much more likely to say the stimulus package is working. But the economy still hurts Republicans, Democrats and Independents where it matters – in their own lives. 47% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans, and 56% of independents say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago.
Congress:
Congress is away from Washington, not to return until after Labor Day. According to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, that’s probably a good thing. The public’s evaluation of Congress is at its lowest point all year. Only 14% approve of how Congress is handling its job, and 60% disapprove.
Even though Democrats control both Houses of Congress, rank and file Democrats aren’t thrilled at how things are going in D.C. They give the Congress only a 27% approval rating. 38% disapprove. Republicans, as one might expect, are extremely negative – only 8% approve and 83% disapprove. But Independents look more like Republicans than Democrats, and are ten times more likely to say they disapprove of how Congress is handling its job than to say they approve!
The Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives comes in for criticism, too. Just 25% have a favorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi; 53% are unfavorable. There’s no difference in the opinions of men and women on Pelosi; she does best with members of her own party, 48% of whom are favorable towards her.
Interested in more details about the poll? We have a topline summary and complete tabs available now.
Methodology:
These results are from a weekly YouGov PollingPoint public opinion tracking poll conducted for publication in The Economist. The poll surveyed 1,000 respondents and was fielded from August 23-25, 2009. Results from interviews conducted online by members of the PollingPoint panel are representative of the U.S. adult population. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.9%.
