Ted Kennedy’s favorability ratings rise across all parties, but death is not expected to affect passage of health care reform legislation
Palo Alto, Calif., September 4, 2009:
Last week, before his death, Senator Ted Kennedy was a partisan figure, who divided the country. Then, according to the Economist/YouGov poll, 72% of Democrats thought favorably of him, but only 17% of Republicans did. The nation was almost evenly split: 43% favorable, 41% unfavorable. But now, after his death, the poll finds that Americans have softened. They have a favorable view of the Senator: 54% are favorable, and just 32% are not.
All groups have improved their image of him, and by similar margins. While Republicans are still negative, his favorable rating from them is now 28%, up 11 points. 82% of Democrats are favorable, up 12 points. Last week, just 38% of independents were favorable towards Kennedy; now 49% are favorable.
But even though opinion of Kennedy may have changed, most of the public does not expect his death to have any impact on the likelihood that health care reform will pass this year. 59% say it will not affect the likelihood of passage. Just 23% think it will make passage more likely, but 17% say his death will make passage even less likely.
And in this week’s Economist/YouGov poll, only 42% think health care reform is likely to pass this year – that figure is even lower than the 46% who thought so last week.
Americans continue to be negative about the plans and about what would happen to them if reform passes, with just about twice as many saying they would personally get worse care if reform passes than saying their health care would improve. And when asked directly whether they supported or opposed the changes to the health care system now being developed by Congress and the Administration, 46% support them, but 54% oppose them.
42% approve of the way President Obama is handling health care, about the same as last week, but half the public disapproves.
The War on Terrorism
Former Vice President Dick Cheney may have supporters: many Americans interviewed in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll express some of the same concerns about the Obama Administration as he has: that the administration may not be tough enough when it comes to terrorism – and that the Bush Administration may have done a better job keeping the country safe.
Americans agree with the Former Vice President when it comes to how to handle those suspected of terrorist connections. By a margin of 63% to 37%, Americans think that waterboarding and other extreme interrogation measures are sometimes justified. And they also think those tactics have been successful. 62% say that those interrogation tactics have led to information that has saved American lives.
The public is closely divided on Attorney General Eric Holder’s appointing a special prosecutor to investigate suspected abuses of the rules for interrogation. 41% think that is a good idea, 34% say it is NOT.
Looking back, Americans give the Bush Administration better marks than they give the Obama Administration on the key question of keeping the country safe. Asked whether the policies of the Bush Administration made the country more or less safe, 39% said more safe and 32% said less safe – a close division, but narrowly positive. In contrast, just 24% think the Obama Administration’s policies have made America safer. 37% say those policies have made the country less safe.
Of course, there are partisan differences in the way people evaluate the way the two Presidencies handled terrorism. Republicans give high marks to the Bush Administration while Democrats praise the Obama Presidency. But the evaluation of political independents is critical: they divide almost evenly when they evaluate the impact of the Bush Presidency on terrorism, but by a margin of two to one, they say the Obama Presidency has made the country less safe rather than more safe.
Just 40% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling terrorism, almost unchanged from last week’s low of 39%. Now, 44% disapprove.
And the bottom line is that Americans are still worried about the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Eight years after September 11, 2001, more than half of Americans, 53% say another terrorist attack is likely in the next 12 months. That number was 51% in April.
Interested in more details about the poll? We have a topline summary and complete tabs available now.
Methodology
These results are from a weekly YouGov PollingPoint public opinion tracking poll conducted for publication in The Economist. The poll surveyed 1,000 respondents and was fielded from August 30-September 1, 2009. Results from interviews conducted online by members of the PollingPoint panel are representative of the U.S. adult population. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.8%.
