President’s approval rating down slightly amid foreign policy and terrorism concerns
Palo Alto, Calif., October 2, 2009:
A week of foreign policy meetings by the President and disclosures regarding Iran, terrorism threats and Afghanistan have pushed foreign policy back into the news – and may not have been helpful to Barack Obama. His overall approval rating, which rose above 50% last week for the first time since the middle of the summer, is back down again:
49% of those interviewed in the latest Economist/YouGov poll approve of the way President Obama is handling his job; 44% don’t.
Worries about terrorism have risen dramatically in the wake of the arrests of men thought to be planning an attack on the New York subway system. In fact, Americans interviewed in the latest Economist/YouGov poll are more worried about the possibility of another terrorist attack than they have been all year. 19% put the probability of an attack in the next year as better than 50-50. Add in those who say an attack is at least “somewhat likely” and the percentage rises to 63%. Three weeks ago, fewer than half the public thought another attack was even somewhat likely.
One of the biggest jumps in concern is among those 65 and older. 27% of them now say an attack is more likely than not. Although the level of concern among Democrats has risen 15 points in the last three weeks (47% of them say an attack is “somewhat likely”), large majorities of Republicans have always expressed concern. In this poll, 84% of Republicans say something could happen.
Americans divide on the President’s handling of terrorism: in this poll, 45% approve, and 42% disapprove. But more (34%) say his Administration’s policies have made the U.S. less safe than say they have made America safer from terrorism (26%). In previous Economist/YouGov polls, Americans have expressed dismay about one specific Obama policy related to terrorism: they oppose closing the prison for terrorist suspects at Guantanamo Bay.
AFGHANISTAN
Like members of the Administration, the public is divided over what to do about the war in Afghanistan. In the poll, 40% think the U.S. should increase the number of troops there, while 37% want to reduce the number. Americans continue to be pessimistic about that conflict. Just 10% think the U.S. is winning; 56% say it is not.
And disapproval of what the President is doing about Afghanistan is increasing. 37% approve of the way Barack Obama is handling the war in Afghanistan, the same percentage as last week, but for the first time in Economist/YouGov polls a majority (52%) disapproves.
THE THREAT OF IRAN
Americans were worried about Iran before the news about the apparent extension in its nuclear program; they are worried about Iran now. Just about two out of three say Iran is at least a “somewhat serious” threat to the United States. And that’s the case whether or not Iran’s nuclear program is specifically mentioned in the question.
THE GOOD FOREIGN POLICY NEWS: TRADE
There are some positive indicators of U.S. public opinion on foreign policy in this Economist/YouGov poll: openness to trade and recognition of the interconnectedness of the U. S. economy to the rest of the world.
Asked whether improvements in the U.S. economy require that the economies of other countries also improve or whether it’s possible for the U.S. economy to improve on its own, a majority (55%) see that linkage -- Democrats much more likely than Republicans. 64% of Democrats say improvements in the U.S. economy require improvements elsewhere; 60% of Republicans disagree.
And most Americans see the advantages of trade – something that hasn’t always been the case. 65% say foreign trade helps the U.S. economy; 56% say it helps their family, and 62% say it helps the other countries trading with the U.S. On all these questions, more Republicans than Democrats see advantages.
Americans are clearly more open to trade with some countries and not others. 43% would increase trade with Canada, which is already the U.S.’s largest trading partner. They are more likely to want to increase than decrease trade with Germany and Poland. There are mixed feelings about trade with three non-European countries: Mexico, South Africa and India. But for at least two countries, about half the country wants a reduction. 48% would decrease trade with Saudi Arabia, and 51% would decrease trade with China.
One reminder that international cooperation isn’t always appreciated: The President’s visit to the United Nations last week did little to change opinion about that organization. Only 16% now say the United Nations is doing a good job handling the problems it faces. But at least that’s better than two weeks ago, when only 12% thought so!
Interested in more details about the poll? We have a topline summary and complete tabs available now.
METHODOLOGY
These results are from a weekly YouGov PollingPoint public opinion tracking poll conducted for publication in The Economist. The poll surveyed 1,000 respondents and was fielded from September 27-29, 2009. Results from interviews conducted online by members of the PollingPoint panel are representative of the U.S. adult population. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.7%.
